Identification Econometrique des Causes des Crises Financieres : Cas de la Crise Mexicaine de 1994 - 1995, de la Crise Asiatique de 1997 - 1998 et de la Crise Financiere de 2007 - 2008

Abstract

This article aims econometric identification of the main causes of financial crises. First, we reported on the qualitative models that can identify the causes of financial crises in our sample, namely: the Mexican crisis between 1994 and 1995, the Asian crisis between 1997 and 1998, and the financial crisis between2007 and 2008. Then we have demonstrated, through the Logit model, that reversals in financial markets and the current account deficit are the main causes of financial crises. This result coincides exactly with studies Kaminsky (2006) and Reinhart and Rogoff (2008, 2009).