Abstract
In 1997, the worst forest fire in Indonesia occurred and hit mangrove forest areas including in Sembilang National Park Banyuasin Regency, South Sumatra. Therefore, the Indonesian government keeps in trying to rehabilitate the mangrove forest in Sembilang National Park. This study aimed to identify the mangrove forest changing and to predict on the future year. The situations before and after forest fire were analyzed. This study applied an integrated Markov Chain and Cellular Automata model to identify mangrove forest change in the interval years of 1989–2015 and predict it in 2028. Remote sensing technology is used based on Landsat satellite imagery (1989, 1998, 2002, and 2015). The results showed mangrove forest has decreased around 9.6% from 1989 to 1998 due to forest fire, and has increased by 8.4% between 1998 and 2002, and 2.3% in 2002–2015. Other results show that mangroves area has continued to increase from 2015 to 2028 by 27.4% to 31% (7974.8 ha). It shows that the mangrove ecosystem is periodically changing due to good management by the Indonesian government.
Highlights
Mangrove forests are located along sloping shores, river estuaries, deltas, bays influenced by tides, and generally found in tropical and subtropical areas [1,2]
It is consistent with the Decree of the Minister of Forestry Number 95/Kpts-II/2003 dated March 19, 2003, which declared that South Sumatra has a mangrove area of 202,896.3 ha, in Sembilang National Park [11]
The increase of the mangrove forest area indicated that the government had succeeded in mangrove rehabilitation management
Summary
Mangrove forests are located along sloping shores, river estuaries, deltas, bays influenced by tides, and generally found in tropical and subtropical areas [1,2]. South Sumatra Province is one of the provinces in Indonesia which has widespread mangrove forests. Based on the results of the inventory and description of mangrove forests implemented by the Musi Watershed Management Center in 2006, the area of mangrove forests in South Sumatra province is around 1,693,110.1 ha [10]. It is consistent with the Decree of the Minister of Forestry Number 95/Kpts-II/2003 dated March 19, 2003, which declared that South Sumatra has a mangrove area of 202,896.3 ha, in Sembilang National Park [11]. The destruction of mangrove forests is caused by building materials, animals feed and forest fire [14]
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