Identification and validation of risk factors for antisocial behaviour involving police

Gido H Schoenmacker,Katre Sakala,Barbara Franke,Jan K Buitelaar,Toomas Veidebaum,Jaanus Harro,Tom Heskes,Tom Claassen,Arias Vásquez Alejandro

doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2020.113208

Abstract

Adult antisocial behaviour has precursors in childhood and adolescence and is most successfully treated using childhood interventions. The aim of this study was to identify and validate robust risk factors for antisocial behaviour involving police contact in a data-driven, hypothesis-free framework. Antisocial behavior involving police contact (20/25% incidence) as well as 554 other behavioural and environmental measures were assessed in the longitudinal general population Estonian Children Personality Behaviour and Health Study sample (n=872). The strongest risk factors for antisocial behaviour included past substance use disorder, gender, aggressive mode of action upon provocation, and concentration difficulties and physical fighting in school at age 15 years. Prediction using the selected variables for both methods in the other, unseen cohort resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.78-0.84. Our work confirms known risk factors for antisocial behaviour as well as identifies novel specific risk factors. Together, these provide good predictive power in an unseen cohort. Our identification and validation of risk factors for antisocial behaviour can aid early intervention for at-risk individuals.

Highlights

Antisocial behaviour can be defined as actions that disregard the well-being of others (Fairchild et al, 2013)
After pre-processing and imputation (Fig. 1-1A-C), the final data sets consisted of n=412 individuals and n=460 individuals, with d=555 remaining overlapping variables including the antisocial behaviour involving police contact (ABPC) outcome (Fig. 1-1D)
We aimed to identify and validate robust predictors for ABPC by going beyond traditional correlation studies

Summary

Introduction

Antisocial behaviour can be defined as actions that disregard the well-being of others (Fairchild et al, 2013) It includes a wide range of disruptive behaviours ranging in severity from nuisances such as loud or unruly behaviour to criminal behaviour including (but not limited to) vandalism or physical violence. While the full developmental path remains unclear, a common precursor to adult antisocial behaviour is aggressive and disruptive behaviour in childhood (Calkins and Keane, 2009; Fairchild et al, 2013). Antisocial behaviour benefits from early intervention: while treatment of adults remains difficult and often inconclusive or unsuccessful (Gibbon et al, 2010; Khalifa et al, 2010), intervention in childhood may be both cost-effective and more successful (Foster et al, 2006; Scott et al, 2010)

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