Identification and quantification of streamflow trends on the Canadian Prairies

Abstract

Trend analysis was performed on streamflow data for a collection of stations on the Canadian Prairies, in terms of spring and summer runoff volumes, peak flow rates and peak flow occurrences, as well as an annual volume measure, for analysis periods of 1966–2005, 1971–2005, and 1976–2005. The Mann-Kendall statistical test for trend and bootstrap resampling were used to identify the trends and to determine the field significance of the trends. Partial correlation analysis was used to identify relationships between hydrological variables that exhibit a significant trend and meteorological variables that exhibit a significant trend. Noteworthy results include decreasing trends in the spring snowmelt runoff event volume and peak flow, decreasing trends (earlier occurrence) in the spring snowmelt runoff event peak date and decreasing trends in the seasonal (1 March–31 October) runoff volume. These trends can be attributed to a combination of reductions in snowfall and increases in temperatures during the winter months.