Identification and quantification of change in Australian illicit drug markets

Stuart Gilmour,Inge Koch,Louisa Degenhardt,Carolyn Day

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-6-200

Abstract

BackgroundIn early 2001 Australia experienced a sudden reduction in the availability of heroin which had widespread effects on illicit drug markets across the country. The consequences of this event, commonly referred to as the Australian 'heroin shortage', have been extensively studied and there has been considerable debate as to the causes of the shortage and its implications for drug policy. This paper aims to investigate the presence of these epidemic patterns, to quantify the scale over which they occur and to estimate the relative importance of the 'heroin shortage' and any epidemic patterns in the drug markets.MethodKey indicator data series from the New South Wales illicit drug market were analysed using the statistical methods Principal Component Analysis and SiZer.ResultsThe 'heroin shortage' represents the single most important source of variation in this illicit drug market. Furthermore the size of the effect of the heroin shortage is more than three times that evidenced by long-term 'epidemic' patterns.ConclusionThe 'heroin shortage' was unlikely to have been a simple correction at the end of a long period of reduced heroin availability, and represents a separate non-random shock which strongly affected the markets.

Highlights

In early 2001 Australia experienced a sudden reduction in the availability of heroin which had widespread effects on illicit drug markets across the country
The size of the effect of the heroin shortage is more than three times that evidenced by long-term 'epidemic' patterns
The reduction in heroin supply had a significant effect on other illicit drug markets, as injecting drug users (IDUs) initially increased their consumption of cocaine and amphetamines [3]

Summary

Introduction

In early 2001 Australia experienced a sudden reduction in the availability of heroin which had widespread effects on illicit drug markets across the country. The consequences of this event, commonly referred to as the Australian 'heroin shortage', have been extensively studied and there has been considerable debate as to the causes of the shortage and its implications for drug policy. The reduction in heroin supply had a significant effect on other illicit drug markets, as IDUs initially increased their consumption of cocaine and amphetamines [3]. This phenomenon has become known as the Australian 'heroin shortage' (or 'heroin drought'). The wide attention which this 'heroin shortage' gained and its impact on a wide range of indicator and sentinel data sets reinforced the significance of the phenomenon (see for example [7]).

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