Identification and prediction of a class of non-Gaussian time-series via transformation

Abstract

Whereas optimal prediction of Gaussian sequences requires the employment of a linear filter with consistently identifiable parameters and with Gaussian white noise input, the optimal predictor of non-Gaussian sequences is n nonlinear filter, having an independent noise input. Since the latter cannot be identified directly without prior knowledge of the non-linearity, the optimal linear predictor is usually identified where a non-Gaussian white noise input is considered and which is fully optimal only when that input turns out to be independent in all moments. However, if the non-Gaussian sequence is the outcome of a Gaussian sequence passed through a zero memory non-linearity or through non-linear measurement elements, a transformation of the non-Gaussian sequence into a Gaussian one is possible, such that optimal non-linear prediction may be approximated to any required degree, as is shown by the analysis of the present work. Furthermore, the parameters of that predictor may be consistently identified in...