Identification and explanation of continental differences in the variability of annual runoff

Abstract

Continental differences in the variability of annual runoff were investigated using an expanded and improved database to that used in previous work. A statistical analysis of the data, divided by continent and Köppen climate type, revealed that continental differences exist in the variability of annual runoff. The variability of annual runoff for temperate Australia, arid southern Africa and possibly temperate southern Africa were noted to be generally higher than that of other continents with data in the same climate type. A statistical analysis of annual precipitation by continent and Köppen climate type revealed that differences in the variability of annual precipitation could account for some but not all the observed differences in the variability of annual runoff. A literature review of potential causes of continental differences in evapotranspiration resulted in the hypothesis that the significantly higher variability of annual runoff in temperate Australia and possibly temperate southern Africa may be due to the distribution of evergreen and deciduous vegetation. The process model Macaque was used to test this hypothesis. The model results indicate that the variability of annual runoff may be between 1 and 99% higher for catchments covered in evergreen vegetation as opposed to deciduous vegetation, depending on mean annual precipitation and the seasonality of precipitation. It is suggested that the observed continental differences in the variability of annual runoff are largely caused by continental differences in the variability of annual precipitation and in temperate regions the distribution of evergreen and deciduous vegetation in conjunction with the distribution of mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality.