Identification and evaluation of soil moisture flash drought by a nonstationary framework considering climate and land cover changes

Abstract

Soil moisture flash drought can cause extensive damage to agriculture, ecosystems, and economies due to its sudden onset. Previous research identified soil moisture flash drought using stationary methods, in which, stationary probability distributions were employed to derive cumulative percentages (CPs) of given soil moisture values, and then based on the CPs sequence, the run theory was used to identify soil moisture flash drought events. However, because changes in climate or land cover can induce significant variations in the underlying probability distributions of soil moisture, the method's usual assumption of stationarity should be questioned. In this study, a nonstationary framework based on the nonstationary frequency analysis method and the run theory was developed for identifying soil moisture flash drought events. This framework was applied to the study of the pentad average root-zone soil moisture (PRZSM) of the Pearl River basin (PRB) in South China based on the ERA5-Land and the GLEAM datasets from 1981 to 2020. The results of the ERA5-Land were general consistent with those of the GLEAM, and the major findings include: (1) without considering the nonstationarity of soil moisture, the onset rate of flash droughts may be underestimated. The average onset rate of flash droughts in nonstationary conditions is slightly greater by 1 %/pentad −2 %/pentad than that in stationary conditions; (2) without considering the nonstationarity of soil moisture, the severity of flash droughts may be overestimated. The average severity of flash droughts in nonstationary conditions is smaller by 10% ⋅ pentads–20% ⋅ pentads than that in stationary conditions; and (3) the trends of the characteristics of soil moisture flash drought are consistent between the stationary and the nonstationary conditions. In conclusion, the above findings contribute to a better understanding of the implications of soil moisture nonstationarity on flash drought identification.