Identification and estimation of landslide-debris flow disaster risk in primary and middle school campuses in a mountainous area of Southwest China

Abstract

In China, school campuses are greatly affected by natural disasters such as landslide-debris flows in mountainous areas. To minimize disaster losses, it is very important to identify and assess disaster risks for every relevant subsystem. By comprehensive consideration of natural and human activities, landslide-debris flow hazard, environmental susceptibility, and exposure of primary and middle school campuses were identified in Chuxiong, a mountainous area of southwest China. These factors were assessed by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process method and k-means Clustering Algorithm. A risk index was also proposed, and a risk map was developed based on it. The results show that hazard density and extreme precipitation intensity were the key hazard-inducing factors. The distributions of rivers, faults, slopes, and soil erosion were the key environmental susceptibility factors, and this finding is consistent with the intensive risk distribution. The increasing amounts of human disturbance, such as serious soil erosion due to farming on steep slopes, degradation of vegetation caused by changes in land use, and highway construction due to rapid urbanization, also play important roles in increasing the risk. We conclude that the environmental factors determine the distribution and intensity of the landslide-debris flow hazard risk to some extent. However, the exposure of primary and middle school campuses, including the density of schools and their contribution, leads to potential losses in landslide-debris flow hazard zones. We highlight the integrated risk assessment including hazard-inducing factors, environment susceptibility, and campus exposure. The results have practical implications for sustainable campus management, planning, and disaster insurance.