Identification and driving mechanism of the industrial land use transition in China

Abstract

With China's rapid advancements in urbanization and industrialization, accurately identifying the stages and driving factors of industrial land use transition (ILUT) can help in the optimization of land resource allocation and in the improvement of resource usage efficiency. Based on the ILUT connotations, an index using dominant morphologies expressed by visible features and recessive morphologies expressed by invisible features is constructed. Moving t-test and random forest model are applied to identify the time points and critical drivers of ILUT in China from 2003 to 2018. The results reveal that 2011 is the point of ILUT in China, transforming from a high-speed development mode with rapid expansion and efficiency orientation to a high-quality model with intensive utilization and green development. By region, the eastern region has realized ILUT, whereas the northeastern region has not yet transformed. Additionally, the central region has realized the dominant transition, and the western region has realized the recessive transition. ILUT is the result of internal coupling and external driving. The external drivers of dominant transition are mainly high-quality labor in the socioeconomic dimension and natural factors. The critical drivers of recessive transition include innovation input in the socioeconomic dimension and environmental regulation. The key drivers vary across regions due to the different ILUT stages. These results are invaluable for elucidating the ILUT development trajectory in China, providing a reference for relevant policymakers to formulate industrial land use policies.