ICO Tokens as an Alternative Financial Instrument: A Risk Measurement

Abstract

Purpose: This research aims to check the risk of investing in tokens and cryptocurrencies to show how much investors could lose and determine whether ICO and cryptocurrency return rates are persistent. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the article, ICO tokens and cryptocurrencies were tested using VaR. Then a Shapiro-Wilk test was performed. Due to the appearance of long tails, in the next step, Renyi’s entropy was calculated. Furthermore, R/S analysis was calculated (the Hurst exponent), and on this basis, Weron’s bootstrapping was applied. Findings: Many tokens have a VaR result between 20% and 30% (26.69% on average, median 21.94%). Renyi’s entropy of 24 tokens is more than 0.5 and less than 1. Nineteen tokens have an entropy of more than 1. For cryptocurrencies, the entropy level is between 0.68 and 0.85. In 84% of cases, the Hurst exponent is more than 0.52. The Hurst exponent values of the return rates of five tokens are above the upper bound of Weron’s intervals, and four out of five the Hurst exponent values of cryptocurrencies are above the upper bound of Weron’s intervals. Practical Implications: There are not many articles centering on evaluating risk in investing in ICO tokens. This approach may be of crucial importance for investors and financial markets managers. Originality/Value: The development of cryptocurrencies led to the rise of ICO. Scientific papers focusing on these elements concentrate on the functioning of processes, raising capital, and volatility.