Ice retreat in the Russian Arctic seas and assessment of the availability of the Northern Sea Route from satellite passive microwave observations

Abstract

This paper presents data on the sea ice area decline in the Northern Hemisphere and in the Russian Arctic seas, on the Northern Sea Route in particular, calculated from passive microwave satellite data. Observations show that the Arctic sea ice has reduced by an average of 5% per decade from November 1978 to the present day. It is noted that, since 2007, the highest sea ice area variability has been observed, which increases the uncertainty of the forecast of the ice coverage in the Arctic seas and thus increases risk for ships in ice-covered waters of northern seas. It is demonstrated that the decrease in summer sea ice area, observed at the end of the melt season, is much more intense than the total decrease in the Arctic sea ice area. On average it is 13% for September for the Arctic as a whole and from 24 to 40% per decade for the seas of the Russian Arctic. The study of changes in the ice conditions in the Northern Sea Route has been carried out for one of the optimal sailing routes. The results indicate a decrease in the ice concentration on the route in the summer months and almost complete route opening in September for the period from 2008 and 2012. It is shown that data from microwave radiometers can be used in the study of ice conditions in the Kara Gates and Vilkitsky Strait. The ice concentration reduction in both water channels is indicated. In the Kara Gates it is 15% and in the Vilkitsky Strait it is 9.5% per decade.