Abstract
Ice phenomena are construed as the occurrence of ice in water irrespective of its structure, form, and duration. One of the most frequently discussed research problems is the possibility of using long-term ice phenology as an indicator of changes of the thermal conditions of ambient air. The study used correlation analysis and regression models in order to determine changes in the parameters studied over time. In order to compare the ice regime of the study reservoir and other lakes in the region, discriminant function analysis, principal components analysis (PCA), and canonical redundancy analysis (RDA) were applied. During the 52 winter seasons studied (1964–2015), there were weak but still statistically significant trends concerning the increase in air temperature in the region (by 0.3 °C per decade), the reduction in the number of days with ice cover (by 8.6 days per decade) and the decline in the maximum and average thicknesses of lake ice (by 2.0 cm and 1.2 cm per decade). The low average depth and volume capacity are reflected in the rapid freezing rate of the reservoir, and its location results in a longer duration of ice cover, greater ice thickness, and later dates of its melting.
Highlights
Ice phenomena are construed as the occurrence of ice in water irrespective of its structure, form, and duration [1]
The study has demonstrated that ice phenomena in the Kozłowa Góra reservoir have been strongly dependent on air temperature in the winter half-year, and moderately dependent on the phases of the
The weakest correlations concerned air temperature in the winter months and ice cover appearance dates, which results from the fact that water body freezing dates depend on external factors, and on internal ones
Summary
Ice phenomena are construed as the occurrence of ice in water irrespective of its structure, form, and duration [1]. Research into ice phenomena occurring in lakes and other water bodies situated in the temperate climate zone covers a broad range of issues. First of all, they focus on determining the basic regularities of changes to the ice regime [2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]. Among the most frequently discussed research problems is the possibility of using long-term ice phenology as an indicator of contemporary climate change In this approach, average dates of ice cover formation and disappearance and the duration of ice phenomena
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