‘Ice epidemic’? Trends in methamphetamine use from three Victorian surveillance systems

Abstract

Introduction and Aims: Victorian media have been reporting a widespread ‘ice crisis’. This concern arises predominantly from anecdotal information and data showing increasing rates of methamphetamine-related harms.We triangulate three data sources to investigate whether a possible increase in methamphetaminerelated harms has been driven by an actual increase in methamphetamine (speed powder/ice/crystal) use. Design and Methods: We analysed three, annual, cross-sectional Melbourne-based drug monitoring systems.The Big Day Out (BDO) surveys young people at a music festival. The Ecstasy and Related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) targets regular psychostimulant users. The Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) interviews people who inject drugs.Trends in prevalence were assessed using Chi test for trend. Trends in frequency of use were assessed using Poisson regression. Results: The percentages reporting recent methamphetamine use were 8% among BDO attendees (n/N = 825/9582), 75% among EDRS participants (n/N = 452/601) and 65% among IDRS participants (n/N = 587/898). The BDO found a non-linear decrease over time in the percentage recently using methamphetamine. EDRS and IDRS data showed no significant change in prevalence of use, but the EDRS showed an increase in frequency of use between 2008 and 2014 (P < 0.01). Discussion and Conclusions: These samples are not representative of the general population and are not reflective of rural populations. Methamphetamine use prevalence among the three serial cross-sectional samples remained stable from 2008–2013/14. Evidence of increasing use frequency may explain some trends in rising harms. Research that accurately characterises methamphetamine use will allow attention to focus on effectively preventing methamphetamine-related harms. Implications for Practice or Policy: While not wanting to underplay the potential adverse effects of methamphetamine use, it is important that government takes an evidence-based response to this issue. The media, policy makers, and practitioners should be aware that increased harm is not necessarily indicative of increased population-level methamphetamine use.