I. S. MELEKHOV’S SCALE OF NATURAL FIRE DANGER OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS: OVERVIEW OF MODERN RUSSIAN METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES

Abstract

The article reviews various methodological approaches to assessing natural fire danger (NFD) and the creation, updating, and application of NFD maps, which modern domestic researchers develop. Herein we introduce and analyse the currently accepted natural fire danger assessment scale by I. S. Melekhov. As pointed out by modern researchers, the methodological drawbacks of the scale are listed. The paper reviews the development of a new methodological approach to the compilation of regional scales for assessing the natural fire danger of forests, considering the links between forest growth conditions and seasonal and climatic conditions in the regions of the Russian Federation. The methodology of mapping natural fire danger based on vegetation fuel maps proposed by a scientific group of Sukachev Forest Institute of SВ RAS was studied. The works of the Mytishchi branch of Bauman Moscow State Technical University were reviewed to investigate the possibility of applying mathematical modelling methods for long-term forecasting of changes in NFD under different scenarios of forest management. The method of annual mapping of NFD classes, as proposed in CEPF RAS, is described. An example of NFD maps to assess the probability of forest fires in the Institute for Complex Analysis of the FEB RAS Regional Problems is considered. Future research areas are identified, namely, a cartographic representation of the created regional scales of NFD and the results of mathematical modelling of long-term changes in NFD.