Hype cycles during socio-technical transitions: The dynamics of collective expectations about renewable energy in Germany

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The literature on socio-technical change describes the widely acknowledged, important roles of collectively shared expectations in shaping the trajectories of novel technologies. However, in previous studies on these technological expectations, researchers have mainly emphasised early innovation stages, paying little attention to technologies that have already begun to challenge and transform the established socio-technical system. In this study, we use the example of the German energy transition to address this gap. By conducting a content analysis of nearly 12,000 newspaper articles, we examined the nature and dynamics of expectations that were circulating in Germany's wider public from 1992 to 2017 regarding wind power, solar photovoltaics, and biogas. Our findings reveal patterns of hype and disillusionment for all three technologies and illustrate the important roles of frame expectations in shaping these hype cycles. Furthermore, the findings shed new light on processes that contribute to the emergence and dynamics of widely shared expectations and indicate that the associated hype patterns are manifestations of unfolding transition dynamics rather than the result of frustrated expectations. In theoretical terms, we integrated insights from (transition) research on discourse and framing into the sociology of expectations, initiating a promising dialogue between scholars in these two fields.