Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador

Abstract

Currently, hydropower is the principal renewable energy source; however, climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, erosion, and sedimentation of rivers, which produce uncertainty with regard to hydroelectric generation. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the climate change projections for the hydropower systems of Ecuador based on data from 14 projects studying scenarios according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study examined the period from 2010 to 2020 with historical data, determined the tendency, defined a database year, and then projected the scenarios to 2050. The quantitative methodology used time-series statistics for Ecuador’s hydropower inflow to calculate the deviation over recent years and develop a model to simulate future power generation. The results showed that hydropower in Ecuador is expected to decrease considerably through to 2050 due to meteorological changes. In this calculation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the selected scenarios showed a reduction in SSP5 of 11.5%, SP2 of 16.2%, and SSP4 of 18.2% through to 2050, indicating that the opportunities for hydroelectric production in the face of climate change are variable, but the challenges are broad. In Ecuador, the projections of reductions in hydropower generation represent a sensitive issue, especially knowing that, in 2020, 87% of the energy grid in the country depended on hydroelectric production.