Hydropolitical Self-Organization theory; system dynamics to analyse hydropolitics of Helmand transboundary river

Abstract

The paper is based on the hydropolitical driver concept and analyses non-technological drivers responsible for the depletion of water resources determining the hydropolitical situation over time. To tackle the complexity stemming from the heterogeneity of drivers, the paper adopts both theoretical hydropolitics (hydropolitical driver concept) and system dynamics (SD) (causal loop diagrams tool) to map a mature self-organization mechanism in the Helmand transboundary river watershed gradually stemming from five known hydropolitical drivers' activity through history. The drivers are described according to two important historical phases. In this regard the authors introduce ‘primary’, ‘third party’, ‘national’, ‘regional’ and ‘state building’ drivers into the transboundary basin in order to define a mature system mechanism, called a ‘Hydropolitical Self-Organization (HSO)’ mechanism in the paper. In parallel with explaining the drivers, the corresponding five stages of the derived HSO are to be analysed. Also, to underpin the drivers and derived system mechanism activities, the paper adopts related theories, statistical data and historical documents. However, the mature self-organization mechanism including all drivers led to derivation of three perspectives of various hydropolitical scenarios in the future both within and between the two neighbouring countries as well as suggesting four system policy options relying on the SD principles to check unintended outcomes of the self-organization mechanism.