Hydrometeorological consequences on the water balance in the Ganga river system under changing climatic conditions using land surface model

Abstract

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) ensures adequately accessible water and management for all. Due to the rapid increase in population and industries along the Ganga river, it is necessary to estimate the water budget to fulfill the demand for water in the future. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test conducted on the Noah-Land Surface Model data for 72 years results in a maximum declining trend of water budget in the Yamuna Lower (Q = −3.82 BCM/year), and a minimum in the Damodar sub-basin (Q = −0.10 BCM/year). All the sub-basins show an increase in groundwater level (mbgl) except the Kali Sindh, which shows a decreasing trend (Q = −0.07 m/year). The percentage change was also estimated in all the sub-basins, including various parameters such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, water budget, and temperature. The extremely severe groundwater drought was estimated using the Standard Groundwater Level Index (SGWLI), from which the values for the Ram Ganga Confluence (SGWLI = 2.44; 2005), Upper stream of Gomti (SGWLI = 2.06; 2014), Ghaghra (SGWLI = 2.22; 2005), Ram Ganga (SGWLI = 2.28; 2005), Yamuna Lower (SGWLI = 2.13; 2007), Kali Sindh (SGWLI = 2.30,2.67; 2002, 2003), Chambal Upper (SGWLI = 2.30,2.20; 2001, 2003), Son (SGWLI = 2.02; 2010), Gandak (SGWLI = 2.37; 2010), Kosi (SGWLI = 2.08; 2012), Damodar (SGWLI = 2.72; 2010), and Bhagirathi (SGWLI = 2.06; 2014) were obtained for a total of 62,050 observed well data.The obtained in-situ point data is converted into the surface raster using a geostatistical technique. Our results show a declining trend in the water budget of all the 19 sub-basins of the Ganga basin and also the groundwater drought in several parts.