Hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios in the Bosque watershed, North-Central Texas, USA

Abstract

This study evaluates hydrology and hydrological extremes under future climate change scenarios. The climate change scenarios were developed from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and statistical downscaling techniques. To ensure hydrological model robustness, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated using the Differential Split Sample Test (DSST) approach. The model was also calibrated and validated at the multi-gauges of the watershed. Future climate change scenarios revealed a reduction in precipitation (in the order of −9.1% to 4.9%) and a consistent increase in maximum temperature (0.34°C to 4.10°C) and minimum temperature (−0.15 °C to 3.7°C) in different climate model simulations. The climate change scenarios triggered a reduction of surface runoff and streamflow and a moderate increase in evapotranspiration. Future climate change scenarios projected a decrease in high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). A higher reduction of Q5 and annual minimum flow is also simulated in future climate scenarios, whereas an increase in annual maximum flow is simulated in climate change scenarios developed from the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The study suggests optimal water management structures which can reduce the effect of change in high and low flows.