Abstract
Abstract. The objective of this study is to model the Mono River basin at Athiémé using stochastic approach for a better knowledge of the hydrological functioning of the basin. Data used in this study consist of observed precipitation and temperature data over the period 1961–2012 and future projection data from two regional climate models (HIRHAM5 and REMO) over the period 2016–2100. Simulation of the river discharge was made using ModHyPMA, GR4J, HBV, AWBM models and uncertainties analysis were performed by a stochastic approach. Results showed that the different rainfall-runoff models used reproduce well the observed hydrographs. However, the multi-modelling approach has improved the performance of the individual models. The Hermite orthogonal polynomials of order 4 are well suited for the prediction of flood flows in this basin. This stochastic modeling approach allowed us to deduce that extreme events would therefore increase in the middle of the century under RCP8.5 scenario and towards the end of the century under RCP4.5 scenario.
Highlights
Water resource management and catchment analysis are crucial aspects of the twenty-first century in hydrological and environmental sciences (Chalkias et al, 2016)
The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are considered over the period 2016 à 2100
The multi-model approach has improved the performance of the individual models
Summary
Water resource management and catchment analysis are crucial aspects of the twenty-first century in hydrological and environmental sciences (Chalkias et al, 2016). Benin Republic has an aquatic ecosystem, supplied and varied, represented from downstream to upstream by a significant maritime component, a system of lagoons and lakes and a hydrographic network in which fit the Lake Ahémé and its channels (Amoussou, 2010) This hydrographic basin – lagoon – lake and maritime system continuum is very sensitive to climate forcing. Several hydrological studies have already been conducted in the Mono River basin (Amoussou et al, 2014; Lawin et al, 2019; Koubodana et al, 2019; Amoussou et al, 2020) None of these studies have investigated the multi-modelling approach, as well as performing uncertainty analysis using stochastic approach. The objective of this study is to model the Mono River basin at Athiémé using stochastic approach for a better knowledge of the hydrological functioning of the basin
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