Hydrological Modeling of Large River Basin Using Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

This description outlines a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based rainfall-runoff model that simulates the flow of water in a river basin. The model operates on a daily time step and consists of four non-linear storage components: interception, soil moisture, channel, and groundwater. It employs (SCS) Unit Hydrograph model to determine unit hydrograph ordinates. The model replicates the movement and storage of water in various parts of the basin, including vegetation, the soil surface, the soil profile, and groundwater layers. To address uncertainty, a Monte Carlo simulation feature is integrated into the model. This feature generates required number of sample sets with random parameter values. The model is run for all these realizations during a calibration period, and performance metrics like NSE are calculated for each calibration yearTo assess prediction uncertainty, model parameter weights are computed by normalizing the corresponding likelihood values. These weights sum up to one and represent the probabilistic distribution of predicted variables, illustrating the impact of structural and parameter errors on model predictions. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the Muskingum constants K and X have the greatest influence on model performance, while parameters ?GW, ?SW, ?fc, and ?pc have a minimal effect on the model's performance.