Abstract
The hydrological hazard for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, State of Morelos, Mexico, is evaluated considering the overflow process of the rivers located in the Yautepec sub-basin. Different scenarios of hydrological hazard were generated to identify those areas with high flood potential using hydraulic modeling for three return periods (Rp) of 50, 100 and 500 years based on statistical analysis of the maximum annual discharge of the Yautepec hydrometric station. We used the Hec-Ras software and geographic information systems (GIS) to model the different flood scenarios. Our results indicate that 10% (1.5 km2) of the total urban area of the municipality will be flooded for a return period of 50 years. About 12% (1.8 km2) of the territory will be affected by flood for a Rp of 100 years. For a Rp of 500 years, approximately 13.5% (2.1 km2) of the municipality’s area will be flooded. Spatially, the central and southern regions of the municipality will be affected by flood heights greater than 1 m for Rp of 100 and 500 years. The northern zone will have heights of less than 0.50 m for Rp of 50 years. Our results can be used as a tool to prevent and reduce the impact of future floods in the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza.
Highlights
Worldwide, disasters caused by floods generate enormous social, economic and environmental impact
In this work we use the Hydraulic Engineering Center (Hec)-Ras model to identify the potential flood zones due to overflowing the Yautepec, Apanquetzalco and Oacalco rivers in the urban area of the Yautepec municipality of Zaragoza
Discussion zones with high probability of flooding by overflow of the Yautepec, Apanquetzalco, and Oacalco rivers in the urban area of the Yautepec municipality of Zaragoza, Morelos, Mexico
Summary
Disasters caused by floods generate enormous social, economic and environmental impact. The process of urbanization of hydrological basins and the transformation of natural soils by less permeable coverings such as agricultural and urban soils, has modified the natural hydrological cycle of the basins and, loss of capacity to regulate the runoff generated by even low intensity and short duration rains [10,11,12,13,14,15,16] These conditions increase the hydrological hazard due to overflowing of rivers because of the loss of hydraulic capacity of the channels to drive large volumes of runoff [17,18,19]. It increases the risk of flooding for the exposed population [20,21,22]
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