Hydrological dynamics of the Kalisindh and Parbati Rivers: An integrated analysis in the context of the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP)

Abstract

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of hydrological patterns in the Kalisindh and Parbati Rivers, highlighting the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) as pivotal for bolstering regional water security. Employing an array of data sources, this research utilizes Polynomial Regression and neural network forecasting to dissect flow patterns, identifying significant virgin flow peaks in the mid-1980s and early 2000s for the Kalisindh River, and a notable peak in 2006–2007 for the Parbati River. Analysis reveals that the specific discharge rate of the Parbati River is diminishing at twice the rate of the Kalisindh River, with annual decreases of approximately 0.0038 cumecs/km2 for Parbati, compared to 0.0019 cumecs/km2 for Kalisindh. Furthermore, runoff volumes indicate that the Parbati River, specifically at the Khatoli Gauge & Discharge (G&D) site, experiences significantly higher runoff—28,137.912 million cubic meters (MCM)—in contrast to 15,795.094 MCM for the Kalisindh River at the Barod G&D site. The findings accentuate the necessity for science-based water management strategies to effectively combat water scarcity and climate change impacts. The ERCP emerges as a crucial initiative for sustainable management of the Kalisindh and Parbati Rivers in Rajasthan, underscoring its potential to serve as a model for sustainable water and river basin management.