Hydrological drought forecasts using precipitation data depend on catchment properties and human activities

Abstract

Hydrological Drought Early Warning Systems play a crucial role in effective drought planning and management, as the impacts of drought are more closely associated with hydrological droughts than meteorological ones. However, current systems primarily focus on meteorological drought forecasts due to the limited access to hydrological data. Here we assess the feasibility of forecasting drought in streamflow and groundwater by solely using precipitation data. The results demonstrate that meteorological drought forecasts derived from the Standardized Precipitation Index with 6-month accumulation periods and various lag times hold the potential to predict streamflow and groundwater droughts. This study also highlights the importance of catchment properties in hydrological drought predictions. Our findings present an opportunity for developing hydrological drought early warning system globally to reach the goal of the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction by 2030 and support the initiative of early warnings for all.