Hydrological assessment of the Tungabhadra River Basin based on CMIP6 GCMs and multiple hydrological models

Abstract

AbstractClimate change significantly impacts the natural systems, accelerating the global water cycle, and impacting various ecosystem services. However, the expected effects of climate change on the frequency and severity of extreme events on hydrological systems vary significantly with location. The present study investigates the uncertainties engulfed in hydrological predictions for the Tungabhadra River Basin. The ensemble streamflow projections were generated using four hydrological models, five climate models, and four climate scenarios to illustrate the associated uncertainties. The uncertainty in hydrological components such as streamflow (QQ), water availability (WA), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) was analysed in the future period (2015–2100). The results suggest that, in the monsoon period, precipitation projections increase by about 10.43–222.5%, whereas QQ projections show an increment between 34.50 and 377.7%. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique is used to further quantify the contribution of different sources to the total uncertainty. Furthermore, the ensemble spread is optimized using quantile regression forests (QRF), and the post-processed flows are likely to decrease up to 7% in June and increase up to 70% in September. This study is envisaged to give insights into the quantification of uncertainties in the prediction of future streamflow for rational and sustainable policymaking.