Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Abstract

The idea of the research to assess the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century on the runoff formation in the Volga basin corresponds to the Paris agreement on climate change 2016 with the main goal to keep the global air temperature rise to below 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial level and to take measures to limit warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this study was to obtain physically based results of changes in the water regime of the Volga basin rivers under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial values. The physical and mathematical model of runoff generation ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) was applied in calculations using data from global climate models (GCMs). The estimation of flow anomalies of the Volga River and its major tributaries showed a decrease in annual runoff by 10–11% relative to the period from 1970 to 1999. The largest relative decrease in runoff by 17–20% was noted for the Oka and Upper Volga rivers, while the Kama River had only a 1–5% decrease. The Volga winter runoff increased by 17% and 28% under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, and negative runoff anomalies during the spring flood and the summer–autumn period turned out to be in the range of 21 to 23%. Despite the increase in precipitation, the role of evaporation in the water balance of the Volga basin will only increase.