Abstract
In order to assess the annual mass balance of the Mandrone glacier in the Central Alps an energy-balance model was applied, supported by snowpack, meteorological and glaciological observations, together with satellite measurements of snow covered areas and albedo. The Physically based Distributed Snow Land and Ice Model (PDSLIM), a distributed multi-layer model for temperate glaciers, which was previously tested on both basin and point scales, was applied.Verification was performed with a network of ablation stakes over two summer periods. Satellite images processed within the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project were used to estimate the ice albedo and to verify the position of the simulated transient snowline on specific dates. The energy balance was estimated for the Mandrone and Presena glaciers in the Central Italian Alps. Their modeled balances (−1439 and −1503mmw.e.year−1, respectively), estimated over a 15year period, are in good agreement with those obtained with the glaciological method for the Caresèr glacier, a WGMS (World Glacier Monitoring Service) reference located in the nearby Ortles-Cevedale group.Projections according to the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (standing for COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling model in CLimate Mode) indicate that the Mandrone glacier might not survive the current century and might be halved in size by 2050.
Highlights
Glaciers play a fundamental role in many natural ecosystems and are one of the main features of an Alpine landscape
The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of the largest glacierized area in the Italian Alps, the Mandrone glacier which is the major branch of the Adamello glacier, in terms of mass loss and areal reduction induced by climate change in the 21st century
Results of the analysis on the Mandrone glacier are in agreement with the above mentioned findings concerning the Caresèr glacier mass balance obtained with the glaciological method (À1686 mm w.e. yearÀ1 in the 1995–2009 period)
Summary
Glaciers play a fundamental role in many natural ecosystems and are one of the main features of an Alpine landscape. Their value though has to be appraised for tourism and as a microclimate and water resource regulation system and as a significant climate change indicator. Changes in the physical and geomorphological properties of glaciers are considered indicative of climate change [48,63,32]. Reference reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have always listed continental glaciers as a key variable for both the analysis of the global climate system and the detection of local effects of climate change [38,39,40,41,42,43,44]. Since the 1980s, at the end of a relatively cold period, these findings have raised interest in monitoring and modelling several glaciers in different parts of the world [36,37,61,73]
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