Abstract
Storage requirements to maintain a high yield were determined independently for each half of 12 long streamflow records for locations throughout the United States having negligible upstream regulation. These determinations based on half-record lengths on the order of 25 yr differed by a factor of two or more in two-thirds of the cases. Thus, traditional means of designing a water resource project by assuming repetition of past streamflows is subject to large uncertainties. A method is described for generating monthly streamflows that have the basic frequency and persistence characteristics of the recorded data on which they are based, and that could presumably occur in the future as likely as could a repetition of past events. The advantage is that many series of desired lengths can be generated for use in project analysis. These can be used to examine possible consequences of a particular design as well as to determine the expected benefits associated with that design.
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