Abstract
A modeling system has been constructed for the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), which covers approximately 492,000 km2 in parts of eight states in the north central U.S. The modeling system is built around the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which is designed to assess the effects of land use, climate, and soil conditions on streamflow and water quality. The simulation approach accommodates a wide range of scenarios focused on shifts in cropping systems, tillage, fertilizer management, conservation practices, and/or other land use changes, which could potentially result in improved water quality within the UMRB and in the Gulf of Mexico. An initial calibration and validation was performed to validate the model for the entire UMRB. Streamflow and sediment yield data at Grafton, IL were used for model calibration and validation. Statistical evaluation of the model performance indicated that annual flow and sediment yield simulated by SWAT corresponded very well with the measured values. Monthly simulation results are not as strong as the annual results; however, the model was able to track the seasonal trends very well. Undergoing efforts includes SWAT validation for nitrogen and phosphorus, and simulation of the agricultural policy scenarios for the region.
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