Hydrogen supply scenarios for a climate neutral energy system in Germany

Abstract

A climate neutral energy system in Germany will most likely require green hydrogen. Two important factors, that determine whether the hydrogen will be imported or produced locally from renewable energy are still uncertain though - the import price for green hydrogen and the upper limit for photovoltaic installations. To investigate the impact of these two factors, the authors calculate cost optimized climate neutral energy systems while varying the import price from 1.25 €/kg to 5 €/kg with unlimited import volume and the photovoltaic limit from 300 GW to unlimited. In all scenarios, hydrogen plays a significant role. At a medium import price of 3.75 €/kg and photovoltaic limits of 300–900 GW the hydrogen supply is around 1200 to 1300 TWh with import shares varying from 60 to 85%. In most scenarios the electrolysis profile is highly correlated with the photovoltaic power, which leads to full load hours of 1870 h–2770 h.