HYDROGEN PRODUCTION AND DELIVERY INFRASTRUCTURE AS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM

Abstract

An agent-based model of the transition to a hydrogen transportation economy explores influences on adoption of hydrogen vehicles and fueling infrastructure. Attention is given to whether significant penetration occurs and, if so, to the length of time required for it to occur. Estimates are provided of sensitivity to numerical values of model parameters and to effects of alternative market and policy scenarios. The model is applied to the Los Angeles metropolitan area In the benchmark simulation, the prices of hydrogen and non-hydrogen vehicles are comparable. Due to fuel efficiency, hydrogen vehicles have a fuel savings advantage of 9.8 cents per mile over non-hydrogen vehicles. Hydrogen vehicles account for 60% of new vehicle sales in 20 years from the initial entry of hydrogen vehicles into show rooms, going on to 86% in 40 years and reaching still higher values after that. If the fuel savings is 20.7 cents per mile for a hydrogen vehicle, penetration reaches 86% of new car sales by the 20th year. If the fuel savings is 0.5 cents per mile, market penetration reaches only 10% by the 20th year. To turn to vehicle price difference, if a hydrogen vehicle costs $2,000 less than a non-hydrogen vehicle, newmore » car sales penetration reaches 92% by the 20th year. If a hydrogen vehicle costs $6,500 more than a non-hydrogen vehicle, market penetration is only 6% by the 20th year. Results from other sensitivity runs are presented. Policies that could affect hydrogen vehicle adoption are investigated. A tax credit for the purchase of a hydrogen vehicle of $2,500 tax credit results in 88% penetration by the 20th year, as compared with 60% in the benchmark case. If the tax credit is $6,000, penetration is 99% by the 20th year. Under a more modest approach, the tax credit would be available only for the first 10 years. Hydrogen sales penetration then reach 69% of sales by the 20th year with the $2,500 credit and 79% with the $6,000 credit. A carbon tax of $38 per metric ton is not large enough to noticeably affect sales penetration. A tax of $116 per metric ton makes centrally produced hydrogen profitable in the very first year but results in only 64% penetration by year 20 as opposed to the 60% penetration in the benchmark case. Provision of 15 seed stations publicly provided at the beginning of the simulation, in addition to the 15 existing stations in the benchmark case, gives sales penetration rates very close to the benchmark after 20 years, namely, 63% and 59% depending on where they are placed.« less