Abstract
Hydrogen will play a major role in the decarbonisation of the global economy. Energy companies are likely to extend interests in hydrogen exports and will need a credible hydrogen supply chain. Patent intensity, coupled with recent hydrogen production technology reviews and commercial activity by companies such as Kawasaki, provides support for forecasting a hydrogen supply chain that will include the following steps: Steam reforming of methane or coal, preferably methane, to produce hydrogen; hydrogen liquefaction (LH2) in preference to ammonia or liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) such as toluene (though this methodology has been trialled for Brunei produced hydrogen); shipping of LH2 to export markets; hydrogen gasification by end users. Given the 20 year lifecycle of patents, this forecast is anticipated to hold until 2030–40. The forecast does not exclude other technical options for hydrogen production and shipping but cost and technical risk will need to be minimised below the mature technologies of steam reforming and hydrogen liquefaction.
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