Hydrogen in a global long-term perspective

Abstract

For many countries, the hydrogen economy offers an operational objective for their long-term energy structure. At the end of the next century, the world will depend on the predominant use of carbon-free and carbon-neutral sources of energy, such as flow energy, energy from modern biomass and safe nuclear energy. According to current expectations, traditional fossil fuels will either be practically exhausted or no longer useful as a result of the greenhouse effect. In both cases, a scarcity motive is at issue. This implies that the direct and indirect costs involved in the use of traditional energy supplies will increase sharply with the passage of time, so that the economic feasibility of the less intensive use of energy and the introduction of alternative energy supply systems will no longer be insurmountable problems. The supply and demand structures of energy will be optimally blended by the use of hydrogen and electricity, an almost ideal combination of secondary energy carriers. With these carriers, practically every centralized or decentralized, environmentally sound energy supply can be permanently maintained, both within and outside of industrialized, metropolitan areas. How the transition to a hydrogen economy will precisely take place is not clear. In general, it is assumed that for many decades to come, the economic development of developing countries will depend on the predominant use of relatively “cheap” fossil energy carriers (coal, petroleum and natural gas), as well as on the accompanying energy supply structures. However, those countries, similar to the wealthy industrial countries, will also have to start using highly capital-intensive and very energy-efficient energy supply systems and energy consumption technologies. This requires innovative strategies that are aimed at compensating developing countries (temporarily) for their lack of purchasing power and knowledge infrastructure. Presumably nowhere in the world will a substantial changeover to hydrogen as an energy carrier possibly be at issue in the first few decades. The costs involved in the hydrogen chain are still too high, and world energy prices are still to low for such a changeover to take place. Attention, however, will focus on drastic energy saving, decarbonization of fossil fuels, substitution to natural gas, the opening up of flow energy, biomass production and the development of inherently safe nuclear energy.