Hydroclimatic variability across the international Lake of the Woods watershed: Implications for nutrient export and climate sensitivity

Abstract

Characterizing streamflow and relationships with climate and watershed characteristics is an essential first step in the design of any monitoring program to assess basin response to changes in land use or climate. This is especially true for the international Lake of the Woods watershed, where recurrent algae blooms have been associated with nutrient inputs from the watershed and climate warming. Here, we present a basin-wide hydroclimatic analysis within the sparsely monitored Canadian portion of the basin. Spatial and temporal patterns in climate and runoff were assessed across the two major geo-zones: the Precambrian ‘Shield zone’, dominated by bedrock, forests and lakes, and the poorly drained ‘Agassiz zone’ where ditching and drainage for agriculture have substantially enhanced the hydrologic connectivity. While climate conditions were consistent across the watershed, Agassiz basins were flashy, highly variable, and more seasonal compared with Shield rivers, likely due to the moderating effect of lake storage in the Shield region. Temperatures increased across the basin (1910–2010), and there was more rainfall and runoff during the ice-covered months (Nov-Mar), suggesting a shift toward earlier snowmelt. Marked seasonality and large swings in flow extremes at the Agassiz rivers suggest this region is particularly sensitive to hydroclimatic change and that frequent monitoring is needed to capture important periods of nutrient export like spring runoff and storm events. In contrast, substantial storage within the Shield landscape suggests this zone is more hydrologically ‘resilient’ to climate extremes and that water quality and quantity measurements can be less frequent.