Abstract
<div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="section"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>The present research work examines three aspects of great importance for the future supply of oil and gas in Colombia. 1) The geographic and stratigraphic distribution of hydrocarbon resources for use in estimations of the contribution </span><span>of different field sizes to the total supply of oil and gas in Colombia. 2) The current state of the hydrocarbon reserves in Colombia and factors that influence their increase or decrease; statistical tools are used to calculate the volume of hydrocarbons that may be found in the future. 3) The observed decline of hydrocarbon production in Colombia, </span><span>which is used to estimate the amount of resources that may be extracted in the future once peak production has been </span><span>reached. Based on these three aspects, we constructed different scenarios to forecast the potential production of oil and gas in Colombia. In addition, we calculated the amount of hydrocarbon reserves in these scenarios. </span></p><p><span><br /></span></p><p><strong>Resumen</strong></p><div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="section"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>El presente trabajo resume tres aspectos considerados de gran importancia para el futuro suministro de petróleo y </span><span>gas en Colombia. Estos son: 1) La distribución ¿geográfica y estratigráfica? de los recursos hidrocarburiferos como </span><span>herramienta para conocer la contribución de los diferentes tamaños de campo a la producción total de hidrocarburos </span><span>en Colombia; 2) El estado actual de las reservas de hidrocarburos en Colombia y los factores que inciden en el incremento o disminución de las reservas, que son dos asuntos temas que inciden en el futuro suministro de estos recursos. Al respecto, por medio de herramientas estadísticas se calcula el volumen de hidrocarburo que puede ser encontrado en el futuro. 3) Las tasas de declinación en la producción de hidrocarburos observados observadas en Colombia, permiten modelar los recursos que pueden ser recuperados en el futuro una vez alcanzados los picos de producción. Bajo esta hipótesis, se construyen diferentes escenarios que resumen pronostican la posible producción de petróleo y gas en Colombia para los próximos años, además se calculan las reservas de hidrocarburos para los </span><span>mismos escenarios. </span></p></div></div></div></div><p><strong><br /></strong></p></div></div></div></div>
Highlights
Hydrocarbons currently represent the primary source of energy in the world and are expected to remain the primary energy source despite discoveries of alternative energy sources
2) The current state of the hydrocarbon reserves in Colombia and factors that influence their increase or decrease; statistical tools are used to calculate the volume of hydrocarbons that may be found in the future
The results and forecasted data presented in this research work correspond to state-of-the-art and highly relevant topics in the hydrocarbon industry
Summary
Hydrocarbons currently represent the primary source of energy in the world and are expected to remain the primary energy source despite discoveries of alternative energy sources. The supply of hydrocarbons is a topic of great political, economic and academic interest. Hydrocarbon reserves are determined by a variety of geological, technological, economic and political factors that create uncertainty for the future of hydrocarbon supply and demand. The goal of this work is to present the current state of three aspects that will influence the supply of hydrocarbons in Colombia in the coming years. 1 - The size distribution of hydrocarbon fields, which is important for determining the distribution of hydrocarbon resources in Colombia and studying the relative importance of large and small fields for the production of oil and gas in the country. The state of hydrocarbon reserves, which is a fundamental topic for the prediction of oil and gas supplies. An estimation of the size of hydrocarbon reserves in Colombia must consider all factors that may influence increases or decreases of these reserves
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