Abstract
Abstract. We report on the hydrologic and morphologic setting of the Samborombón Bay, Argentina, which is expected at the end of the 21st century as a consequence of possible scenarios of relative sea level rise (RSLR). The geomorphological analysis of the Samborombón coastland points out only minor changes occurred over the last 40 yr. The modifications are mainly related to the construction of canals to enhance the floodplain drainage. A digital elevation model (DEM) obtained by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data archive, ad hoc calibrated/validated for the study area, highlights that about 3000 km2 of coastal plain present a morphological setting at high risk of sea flooding. The analysis of sea level and storm surge events recorded from 1905 to 2010 in Buenos Aires provides the RSLR rate and the return period of extreme floods. In addition, vertical land movements (VLM) measured by the permanent GPS stations of Buenos Aires and La Plata allow for the quantification of the eustatic component of the RSLR and estimating a plausible RSLR rate in the Samborombón Bay. Taking into account possible RSLR scenarios at the end of 2100 as resulting from the statistical analysis of (i) tide gauge and GPS time series and (ii) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the potential effect of the increased sea level on the Samborombón coastland is simulated. The results show that the combined rise of sea levels, surficial waters and groundwater will lead to a new morpho-hydrologic setting of the coastal area, especially in the low-lying southern sector. Here, a coastline retreat up to 40 km is expected, with temporary submersion up to 4000 km2 during storm surges.
Highlights
relative SLR (RSLR) rate and the return period of extreme floods
Long-term SLR is difficult to demanent GPS stations of Buenos Aires and La Plata allow for the quantification of the eustatic component of the RSLR and estimating a plausible RSLR rate in the Samborombon Bay
Tosi et al.: Hydro-morphologic setting of the Samborombon Bay data recorded at Buenos Aires and Mar del Plata, 200 km to the north and south, respectively
Summary
RSLR rate and the return period of extreme floods. In addi- and Cazenave, 2010), is probably the most relevant problem tion, vertical land movements (VLM) measured by the per- jeopardizing coastal plains. 2100 as resulting from the statistical analysis of (i) tide gauge and model projections and pointed out that the SLR projecand GPS time series and (ii) Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- tion in 2100 would rangeHbyetdwreoenlo0.g2 tyo 1a.2nmdwith respect to mate Change (IPCC) predictions, the potential effect of the increased sea level on the Samborombon coastland is simuthe present level. This rise would not be uniform, as it is indicated by all gEenaerratlhcirScuylastioten mmodels coupling lated. Using a least squares regression fit according to a simple quadratic parameterization, D’Onofrio et al (2008) and Fiore et al (2009) calculated an RSLR acceleration of 0.019 ± 0.005 mm yr−12 at Buenos Aires and 0.120 ± 0.006 mm yr−12 at Mar del Plata for the two periods
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