Abstract
Abstract. This paper deals with the limits in hydrodynamic and morphodynamic predictions for semi-enclosed coastal domains subject to sharp gradients (in bathymetry, topography, sediment transport and coastal damages). It starts with an overview of wave prediction limits (based on satellite images and buoy records) in a restricted domain, namely the Mediterranean basin, followed by an in-depth analysis of the Catalan coast, one of its land boundaries. The morphodynamic modelling for such regions is next discussed, based on the impact of a characteristic storm. The driving wave and surge conditions produce a morphodynamic response that is validated against the pre- and post-storm emerged beach state, recovered from two lidar images. The quality of the fit is discussed in terms of the physical processes and the suitability of the employed modelling suite. From here an assessment of errors and uncertainties is presented, with the aim of establishing the prediction limits for flooding and erosion analyses, key elements for coastal engineering decisions.
Highlights
Coastal regions are often characterized by sharp gradients in meteo-oceanographic drivers, sedimentary fluxes and socioeconomic pressures
If the wind modulus is decreased by 5 % (G case), the balance between correct and incorrect patterns leads to higher Brier skill score (BSS)
When the wind strength is decreased unrealistically, the sediment fluxes coming from the northern part of the domain start to bypass the groyne, reversing the behaviour in the central part [B–C], Fig. 5a and c, from erosion to accretion
Summary
Coastal regions are often characterized by sharp gradients in meteo-oceanographic drivers, sedimentary fluxes and socioeconomic pressures. The astronomical tidal range, between 10 and 30 cm, is quantitatively less important, making the area a micro-tidal environment For this type of coastal domain, the sharp gradients (due to the topobathymetric features) in the spatial patterns of wind, wave and circulation fields impose a tough challenge for numerical simulations, demanding a mesh discretization fine enough to solve these variations. To prove this point, the paper will start by presenting wave simulations, the nesting strategy and how the computational results have been calibrated with available observations. After this there is a discussion on the limits of hydro-morphodynamic predictions and the implications for engineering design and management decisions (Sect. 6), followed by some conclusions (Sect. 7)
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