Abstract
This paper presents the impact of mean maximum temperature on Chitral river basin situated at Chitral district and high altitude (>6000 m) peaks of the Hindukush range under changing climate in Pakistan. The analysis of Chitral River as one of the tributary of Kabul River—the second largest river of Pakistan—revealed that change in temperature has a profound influence on the snow/glacial melt in comparison to the mean monthly rainfall. This is because the studied river is faded by the snow and glacial melt and receives a lot of snowfall from winter (DecFeb) to pre-monsoon (April-May). In monsoon period (Jul-Sep), 30% of the time the discharge rate remains above the mean while 60% of the time the discharge is less than the mean in the pre-monsoon (April-May) period. It means that 10% of the time the discharge is in reach of 300% to 900% of the mean flow, showing a rise in water yield and river discharge rate due to increase in mean monthly maximum temperature. Due to this significant increase (p < 0.05), the glaciers start melting faster and disappear in early summer, hence, reducing their residency period to convert into ice. This shows the signals of changing climate transfer into hydrological changes in Pakistan. Our findings are important for agriculture, hydropower and water management sectors for future planning especially in dry season for sustainable food security and for operation of ydrological installations in the country.
Highlights
The rising trend in temperatures, associated with the changes in precipitation pattern, enhances the hydrological cycle in the form of stream flow volume as well as its distribution throughout the year and temporally causing significant water stress [1]
The dataset used in this study consisted of mean minimum and maximum temperatures and rainfall records obtained from the Climate Data Processing Centre (CDPC) of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) while river discharge data was acquired from Water and Power Supply Development Authority (WAPDA)
In order to examine the influence of the rapid snow melting on Chitral river discharge at Chitral district during monsoon period July to September, the hydro-meteorological data were carefully compiled into five and twenty five year periods
Summary
The rising trend in temperatures, associated with the changes in precipitation pattern, enhances the hydrological cycle in the form of stream flow volume as well as its distribution throughout the year and temporally causing significant water stress [1]. According to Kundzewicz et al [2] that discharge in glacier fed rivers will remain increase in the short term but decrease over the few decades as slowly and gradually ice storage will diminished It means that temperature change is one of the major factors, affecting precipitation distribution, which may be in the form of snow, glacier melting and rainfall and is considered as major contributor to the fresh water sources [3,4,5,6]. Several tributaries of the two big rivers i.e. Indus and Kabul originate from areas included in extreme north of Pakistan These two rivers are fed by the snow and glacial melt as receiving a lot of snowfall in winter and the pre-monsoon dry season (April-May). This type of information is useful for watershed management and for irrigation, hydel power generation and disaster management sectors
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