Hydro-climatic trends and people’s perceptions: case of Kali Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

Abstract

Water resources, especially snow-fed rivers, are vulnerable to climate change. Water resources management requires analysis of both hydro-climatic trends and people's perception of climate change. We used available data to assess hydro-climatic trends, and household surveys to assess perceptions of climate change and its effects, in the snow-fed Kali Gandaki River Basin (KGRB) in western Nepal. The methodology consisted of: (1) definition and calculation of climate variability indices, (2) assessment of people's perception of climate change, (3) analysis of river flow variability and (4) discussion and summary of the spatial variation in climatic trends, peoples' perceptions, and the effects of climate change. The results showed a greater warming trend at higher altitude, while precipitation indices showed variable trends. Increasing temperature at high altitudes has affected pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and minimum discharges in the Kali Gandaki River. Household surveys in the Mustang district indicate that people's perception of climate change is consistent with climate data. They are concerned about the prevailing effects on water resources, ecological systems, agriculture and livelihoods. This will facilitate water resources planning and management in the basin.