Hybrid vehicles, social signals and household driving: Implications for miles traveled and gasoline consumption

Abstract

We estimate the effect of gasoline-electric hybrid vehicle ownership on household annual miles traveled. We focus on two types of rebound effects associated with hybrid adoption. The first is a social status driven rebound effect arising out of the signaling value associated with visually distinct hybrid vehicles. The second is the total rebound effect: in addition to any social status effects, the higher fuel efficiency of gasoline-electric vehicles leads to a lower cost per mile. We recover causal effects using a matching strategy to account for observable and unobservable factors that influence both hybrid adoption and miles traveled. While we do not find evidence of a significant social status rebound effect, we estimate an overall hybrid rebound of about 3 percent of the (average) annual miles traveled. This rebound effect is not sufficient to offset the reduction in fuel consumption associated with the higher fuel efficiency of the hybrid and we find that hybrid adoption reduces fuel consumption by 34–46 percent per year compared to conventional gasoline powered vehicles.