Abstract
It is an important means for knowing something about the influence of uncertain factors on the power flow state to calculate uncertain power flow. In this paper, the uncertain power flow problem considering wind power and photovoltaic power generation is studied. The interval distribution models of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are established by expressing the natural factors such as wind speed and light intensity as interval variables, and an uncertain power flow model of hybrid stochastic and interval variables is established by expressing the node load as the stochastic variable to obey the Gaussian distribution. A double-layer Monte Carlo method is proposed to solve it. The numerical results obtained by the IEEE-30 bus system show that the proposed model and method are effective, by which the maximum and minimum cumulative probability functions of the power flow state can be obtained, thus determining whether the probabilistic interval of the power flow state is out-of-limit (maximum probability and minimum probability).
Highlights
Power flow calculation is the basis of power system steady state analysis
The interval models of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are established by expressing the natural factors such as wind speed and light intensity as interval variables and the node load power as stochastic variables that follow the Gaussian distribution
The numerical results obtained by IEEE-30 bus system show that the maximum cumulative probability function and the minimum cumulative probability function of power flow can be obtained, and the probability interval of power flow sate off-limits can be determined by the proposed uncertain power flow calculation, VOLUME 7, 2019 so that the researchers can master the stochastic law of the power system state
Summary
Power flow calculation is the basis of power system steady state analysis. In recent years, the proportion of wind power, solar power and other renewable energy power generation in power generation side has been increasing year by year, by which the primary energy structure of the power generation side has been optimized. System are modeled as the stochastic variables following a certain probability distribution by the probabilistic power flow, and a more comprehensive stochastic information of the power flow state is obtained by the probability analysis method (such as probability distribution and probability characteristics). The probabilistic power flow or interval power flow model established must be aggressive or conservative Concerning these issues, an uncertain power flow model and method for hybrid stochastic and interval variables with wind power and photovoltaic power considered is proposed. The uncertain power flow model of mixed stochastic variables and interval variables is constructed by introducing the uncertainties such as wind speed, light intensity and node load into the power flow equations. The paper is organized as follows: The power flow model with hybrid stochastic and interval variables considering wind power, photovoltaic power and node load is established in the second section.
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