Hybrid solar/wind power system probabilistic modelling for long-term performance assessment

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic approach based on the convolution technique to assess the long-term performance of a hybrid solar–wind power system (HSWPS) for both stand-alone and grid-linked applications. To estimate energy performance of HSWPS the reliability analysis is performed by the use of the energy index of reliability (EIR) directly related to energy expected not supplied ( EENS). Analytical expressions are developed to obtain the power generated. The hybrid system and the load models employed enable the study period to range from one year to one particular hour-of-day, thus allowing the inclusion of the time-value of energy as appropriate in economic assessments. A numerical example application is included to illustrate the validity of the developed probabilistic model: the results are compared to those resulting from time domain simulations.