Hybrid risk analysis model for analyzing the urban infrastructure risk

Abstract

The operation of urban infrastructure (UI) system is crucial for supporting societal needs. In the practical development of UI system, a wide range of uncertain and potential extreme event as well as disasters will inevitably result in risks to UI system. Thus, the inherent risks exert significant consequences on the dependent community. Conventional Risk Analysis (RA) methods tend to focus solely on the magnitude issue. Considering the complex nature of risk and its impact on the community, little attention has been given to analyze the risk and its impact in an integrated manner. This research aims to develop a novel hybrid RA model for analyzing significant risk in terms of its' magnitude and impact pattern to community. The hybrid RA model integrates the analysis between Fuzzy-based FMECA and Social Network Analysis. The applicability of the model is demonstrated using a case study of urban water supply infrastructure. Following the data analysis and discussion, it is found that the model capable to capture the risk impact which is characterized not only by its' magnitude but also by the degree of association between individuals and risks, and the dynamic of the spread of impact. This research contributes to the body of knowledge by delivering theoretical framework that can promote UI decision-makers towards analyzing and better understanding UI risk and its’ impact, and practical tools that could potentially provide a further path for developing mitigation strategy and policies toward addressing complex UI risks, and thus enhance the resilience of both UI system and the communities.