Hybrid Regime Propaganda and Democracies' Estranged Malcontents

Abstract

Hybrid regimes increasingly use overt and covert propaganda tools to influence public opinion in democracies. We present an argument about how such propaganda operates on targeted publics. We posit that effectiveness depends on whether the source of the message is revealed, on the foreign or domestic nature of the issue, and on individual characteristics of the recipients. We test these insights in Germany, in the context of Kremlin messaging, using eight survey experiments administered to a large sample of German voters (n = 2, 303). Citizens who mistrust the government, believe in conspiracy theories, or are generally disconnected from politics are vulnerable to hybrid warfare, while the rest of the populace is not. At the same time, providing a pro-Western viewpoint and outing the Russian source are not generally effective counter-measures. We discuss the implications of hybrid regime propaganda for information wars between states and for the internal workings of democratic politics.