Hybrid quantitative–qualitative method for technology portfolio selection: a case study of Iran’s space industry

Abstract

The space industry is known as an economic driver for many world economies. In Iran, the acquisition of satellite technology knowledge is one of the achievements of the country’s scientific and technological indicators in recent years, but the position and importance of optimal investment in this industry in Iran have been ignored. The optimal technology portfolio is one of the tools that can cover this gap and lead to better decision-making by policymakers. In this paper, the optimum technology portfolio determination regarding its goals, attributes and challenges is addressed for Iran’s space industry with a hybrid quantitative–qualitative method in two short and medium-term periods. We formulate a technology portfolio selection model with these multi-objective functions: maximization of benefits in using different technologies comprising of both short and medium-term portfolios, maximizing the total summation of all Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) of technologies, maximizing the acquisition speed for the technologies, and minimizing the acquisition risk of technologies in each portfolio. In the proposed model, the usability, acquisition cost, and complexity of each technology are considered meticulously. Also, the goal programming method is used to integrate the objective functions. Another novelty of this paper is the formulation of two portfolios with two different periods in which their corresponding inputs and outputs affect the other. This research can significantly help in directing the country’s investment in the space industry, spatial ecosystem orientation, facilitating the creation of space-based businesses, improving economic growth, and also providing guidelines to improve the related policies in this area. In addition, this research can be an inspiration for other developing countries in the space industry.