Hybrid machine learning system based on multivariate data decomposition and feature selection for improved multitemporal evapotranspiration forecasting

Abstract

Evapotranspiration is an essential component of the hydrological cycle. Forecasting the reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) using a reliable and generalized framework is crucial for agricultural operations, especially irrigation. This study was aimed at evaluating the performance of a hybrid system including the K-Best selection (KBest), multivariate variational mode decomposition (MVMD), and Machine learning (ML) models for 1-, 3-, 7-, and 10-day-ahead forecasting of the daily ETo in twelve stations of California. The analysis covered a span of 20 years, from 2003 to 2022. Three stand-alone ML models, namely Cascade Forward Neural Network (CFNN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), and Bagging Regression Tree (BRT) are used and were integrated with various preprocessing techniques to construct three hybrid models, i.e., MVMD-KBest-CFNN, MVMD-KBest-ELM, and MVMD-KBest-BRT. According to the results obtained in the testing phase, averaged across all stations, all three stand-alone models (CFNN, ELM, and BRT) yielded similar outcomes. In contrast, the hybrid models exhibited significantly enhanced performances compared with the standalone models, and MVMD-KBest-CFNN and MVMD-KBest-ELM models outperformed MVMD-KBest-BRT model. The BRT-based models were vulnerable to overfitting. The performance of the best models is superior compared to similar existing studies. Examining the variations across stations, it was found that the stations located further from the coast and in arid regions could be susceptible to prediction errors and necessitate more attention.