HYBRID K MEANS-MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINES FOR DISTRIBUTION OF DENGUE FEVER RISK MAPPING IN BOJONEGORO DISTRICT

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a dangerous disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes’ bites. WHO data shows that almost half of the world's humans are exposed to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. The number of mortality caused by dengue disease is around 20,000 every year. In East Java, Bojonegoro District has the highest number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases (416). To reduce this number, the causative factors need to be known. Additionally, it's important to pinpoint the region or cluster where the variables driving the spread are located so that prevention and treatment efforts are effective. Based on the elements contributing to the transmission of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, this study seeks to identify and categorize locations at risk for the spread of the illness. This study uses Hybrid K Means-Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) which is a combination of K-Means and MARS methods in the hope of providing better analytical results. This is because the data was divided into simpler parts by considering the Oakley distance. The results obtained from the K Means-MARS hybrid shows the relationship between response variables and predictor variables for each cluster. There are three clusters of risk for the spread of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bojonegoro district with categories: high risk cluster, medium risk cluster and low risk cluster. The high risk cluster consists of 7 sub-districts (Baureno, Kepohbaru, Balen, Sumberrejo, Kedungadem, Bojonegoro and Dander). The variables affecting the DHF Sufferer in the high risk cluster were population density (X2), Altitude (X3) and Health Worker (X6). Meanwhile, the medium risk cluster consists of 10 sub-districts (Kalitidu, Kanor, Kapas, Ngasem, Ngraho, Padangan, Sugihwaras, Sukosewu, Tambakrejo, and Trucuk). The variables that affect the DHF Sufferer in the medium cluster are Number of Dead (X1), Population Density (X2) and Health Facility (X5). The low risk cluster consisted of 11 sub-districts (Bubulan, Gayam, Gondang, Kasiman, Kedewan, Malo, Margomulyo, Ngambon, Purwosari, Sekar, and Temayang). The variables affecting the DHF Sufferer rate in the low risk cluster were number of dead (X1) and population density (X2).