Abstract
In the present study Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been optimized using a hybrid algorithm of Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The hybrid GA-PSO algorithm has been used to improve the estimation of electricity demand of the state of Tamil Nadu in India. The ANN-GA-PSO model uses gross domestic product (GSDP); electricity consumption per capita; income growth rate and consumer price index (CPI) as predictors that affect the electricity demand. Using the historical demand data of 25 years from 1991 till 2015 it is found that ANN-GA-PSO models have higher accuracy and performance reliability than single optimization models such as ANN-PSO or ANN-GA. In addition, the paper also forecasts the electricity demand of the state based on “as-it-is” scenario and the scenario based on milestones set by the “Vision-2023” document of the state.
Highlights
Electricity reforms have liberalized the electricity sector in many countries
Results point out that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) optimized by both Genetic Algorithm (GA)-Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) in quadratic form (A-G-P-Q) gives the best performance followed by ANN-G-P model
This study has proposed a novel algorithm based on PSO and GA for optimizing ANNs in linear and quadratic forms for forecasting of electricity demand
Summary
Electricity reforms have liberalized the electricity sector in many countries. The salient features have been unbundling of generation, transmission and distributions entities; a competitive market with in countries and creation of an independent regulator for access to transmission infrastructure. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is very popular amongst researchers due to its adaptability over wide range of problems involving decision making in uncertain situations This has led to the rapid developments of hybrid models [13]. Banda E et al [25] have presented that time series models lead to large forecasting errors due to their sluggishness to adapt to changing load characteristics According to their findings ANN-PSO model gives improved results as compared to ANN-BP. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 introduces the Electricity sector in Tamil Nadu; Section 3 presents methodology used for research; Section 4 shows the features of ANN-GA-PSO models; Section 5 brings out the results and discussion; Section 6: Conclusions
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