Abstract
Traditional risk analysis techniques are ineffective for capturing the dynamic causal interactions and subjective uncertainties involved in assessing risk and opportunity events since they treat risks independently and rely on the availability of sufficient historical data. In this paper, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics (FSD) model is developed to analyze the impacts of interrelated and interacting risk and opportunity events on work package cost to determine work package and project contingencies using expert judgement and subjective assessment. A fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is employed to structure and analyze the causal interactions among risk and opportunity events. This paper provides the following contributions: (1) a systematic risk assessment and prioritization procedure; (2) a structured method for defining the dynamic causal relationships among risk and opportunity events and quantifying their impact on work package and project contingencies using FSD; and (3) a method for representing linguistic variables and applying fuzzy arithmetic in FSD.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
